The United States is predicted to record its first Atlantic hurricane in 20 years this year, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty about how hurricanes will develop.
US models predict that the storm will hit the East Coast first and then spread westward into the Southeast and South, while hurricanes will strike the South in the Midwest and West.
However, an analysis from the US National Hurricane Center says it has yet to see any evidence of any such Atlantic hurricane forming.
The hurricane will likely hit the South at a time when there is a warming trend, the analysis said, but it could take years to get past the first wave.
The US National Weather Service said the Atlantic hurricane model was based on information from the last major hurricane to hit the US in 2000, which hit a coastal area that was heavily populated with many people.
US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecaster Chris MacDowell said in a statement that the US model showed that the Atlantic would be a warmer, wetter storm than previous models had predicted.
The models had shown that the hurricane would weaken over the Atlantic, but the modelers had also predicted that it would weaken further, and that the current storm could be much stronger, MacDowells said.
The National Hurricane Centre is predicting a total of 1,300 to 2,000 fatalities across the Atlantic and the Caribbean.
It said that the death toll is expected to increase over time due to heat and humidity, which could also exacerbate the storm’s impact.
The hurricane will pass through the Atlantic on Friday, according to the US hurricane forecast, and will continue through Sunday and into early Monday.